Quarterly Economic Commentary, December 1997

For the fourth successive year, the Irish economy has performed extremely well in 1997. Real GDP is estimated to have increased by about 10½ per cent and real GNP by 9 per cent, above even the average growth rate of the previous three years. The growth has remained well balanced between exports and domestic demand, with the result that the current account of the balance of payments is estimated to have risen to 2¾ per cent of GNP while annual average employment is estimated to have increased by about 57,000 or over 4¼ per cent. Unemployment, including long term unemployment, has declined significantly, and the standardised unemployment rate for 1997 is likely to have been less than 10 per cent when final revisions are made. The public finances have been exceptionally strong, with a general government surplus having been achieved, and consumer price inflation has averaged 1½ per cent. Economic growth will continue to be rapid by historical or international standards in 1998, but considerable uncertainty surrounds the actual rate of growth that can be expected. The impact of the Asian financial crisis, and of countervailing measures by major western economies, on world output and trade cannot yet be assessed with accuracy. While currency volatility on a world basis appears set to continue, its precise evolution cannot be foreseen, and, more specifically, it is still too early for a final decision to be made on the bilateral exchange rates of the Irish pound within EMU. Making what we hope are balanced assumptions regarding such uncertainties, we forecast that real GNP will grow by about 6 per cent in 1988, implying a significant slowing of expansion in the course of the year. Total employment is projected to increase by 42,000 on an annual average basis, and the unemployment rate to decline to an average of 9¼ per cent. The public finances should remain strong, with a further general government surplus, but a major improvement over the Budget targets seems unlikely in 1998. With export growth projected to slacken and a deterioration likely in the terms of trade, the current account is forecast to fall quite sharply, although remaining in comfortable surplus. Price inflation will almost certainly accelerate, and on our assumptions the annual increase in the consumer price index seems likely to be in the region of 2¼ per cent. If the depreciation in the trade-weighted value of the Irish pound is larger and comes sooner than we have assumed, the annual average increase in prices will be greater, and could well exceed 3 per cent. This would have relatively little effect on the forecast rate of growth of real GNP in 1998, although it could alter its composition. Given the unavoidable uncertainties concerning economic prospects in 1998 and beyond, it would be most unfortunate if euphoria generated by the economic performance of the past four years were to undermine the self-discipline which was an essential contributing factor in that success. To realise the potential for sustained high growth in the coming years it is necessary that prudence and realism continue to be exercised by government, interest groups, institutions and individuals. Favourable long-term factors could be negated by short-term impatience and unrealistic expectations

Population genetic structure and predominance of cyclical parthenogenesis in the bird cherry–oat aphid Rhopalosiphum padi in England

Genetic diversity is determinant for pest species' success and vector competence. Understanding the ecological and evolutionary processes that determine the genetic diversity is fundamental to help identify the spatial scale at which pest populations are best managed. In the present study, we present the first comprehensive analysis of the genetic diversity and evolution of Rhopalosiphum padi, a major pest of cereals and a main vector of the barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV), in England. We have used a genotyping by sequencing approach to study whether i) there is any underlying population genetic structure at a national and regional scale in this pest that can disperse long distances; ii) the populations evolve as a response to environmental change and selective pressures, and; iii) the populations comprise anholocyclic lineages. Individual R. padi were collected using the Rothamsted Insect Survey's suction‐trap network at several sites across England between 2004 and 2016 as part of the RIS long‐term nationwide surveillance. Results identified two genetic clusters in England that mostly corresponded to a North – South division, although gene flow is ongoing between the two subpopulations. These genetic clusters do not correspond to different life cycles types, and cyclical parthenogenesis is predominant in England. Results also show that there is dispersal with gene flow across England, although there is a reduction between the northern and southern sites with the Southwestern population being the most genetically differentiated. There is no evidence for isolation‐by‐distance and other factors like primary host distribution, uncommon in the south and absent in the southwest, could influence the dispersal patterns. Finally, results also show no evidence for the evolution of the R. padi population, and it is demographically stable despite the ongoing environmental change. These results are discussed in view of their relevance to pest management and the transmission of BYDV

Assessment of a joint farmer-veterinarian discussion about biosecurity using novel social interaction analyses

Veterinarians are trusted by farmers and play an important role in assisting them to implement biosecurity. More research is needed that particularly focuses on the impact of joint farmer-veterinarian discussions to further understand the role of communication in altering biosecurity behaviours. The aim of this study was to analyse joint dairy cattle farmer-veterinarian discussions about the adoption of on-farm biosecurity using novel social interaction methodologies. Farmer and veterinarian stakeholders were invited to take part in a face-to-face meeting. Introductory presentations were given, followed by separate facilitated veterinarian and farmer discussions. All stakeholders were brought together for a final facilitated group discussion which was audio recorded. Corresponding transcripts from the recordings were analysed via thematic and conversation analyses. Conversation analysis assessments such as turn taking, repair, sequence organisation, overlap and asymmetry were employed to investigate the nature of the conversation. Thematic analysis identified the negative repercussions of conflicting information or ineffective communication surrounding biosecurity implementation. The type of, and importance of, the relationship farmers had with veterinarians and other stakeholders was highlighted. The need to provide personalised biosecurity protocols on farms was identified. Four key factors were identified via conversation analyses. These included: 1) how the conversation facilitated agreement, 2) how the conversation allowed the farmer and veterinarian participants to learn from one another in real time, 3) how the discussion enabled participants to expand upon points they were making, and 4) how participants were able to obtain a greater understanding of the other participants’ opinions, even without total resolution. Debate around the effective implementation of biosecurity measures on farms, explored using novel techniques, demonstrated the potential for utilising a discussive approach between veterinarians and farmers to lead to solutions not previously considered. Because of the nature of the discussion, conversation analysis resulted in an informative approach to encapsulating the nuanced dialogue between stakeholders, highlighting the potential of this analysis framework

Moth biomass increases and decreases over 50 years in Britain

Steep insect biomass declines ('insectageddon') have been widely reported, despite a lack of continuously collected biomass data from replicated long-term monitoring sites. Such severe declines are not supported by the world’s longest running insect population database: annual moth biomass estimates from British fixed monitoring sites revealed increasing biomass between 1967 and 1982, followed by gradual decline from 1982 to 2017, with a 2.2-fold net gain in mean biomass between the first (1967–1976) and last decades (2008–2017) of monitoring. High between-year variability and multi-year periodicity in biomass emphasize the need for long-term data to detect trends and identify their causes robustly

What Future for LEADER as a Catalyst of Social Innovation?

The LEADER Approach was initially designed to promote innovation in European rural areas by sustaining a bottom-up approach to local development. Nowadays the LEADER Approach includes elements that are generally considered to support social innovation. Classical features of the LEADER Approach \u2013 for example, area-based development strategies and cooperation and networking \u2013 are considered catalysts of social innovation as well. By drawing on key elements which support social innovation, the chapter discusses the future role of the LEADER Approach and Local Action Groups, and debates the challenges and potentials of the new rural development policy within emerging social, environmental and economic needs

Entrepreneurial sons, patriarchy and the Colonels' experiment in Thessaly, rural Greece

Existing studies within the field of institutional entrepreneurship explore how entrepreneurs influence change in economic institutions. This paper turns the attention of scholarly inquiry on the antecedents of deinstitutionalization and more specifically, the influence of entrepreneurship in shaping social institutions such as patriarchy. The paper draws from the findings of ethnographic work in two Greek lowland village communities during the military Dictatorship (1967–1974). Paradoxically this era associated with the spread of mechanization, cheap credit, revaluation of labour and clear means-ends relations, signalled entrepreneurial sons’ individuated dissent and activism who were now able to question the Patriarch’s authority, recognize opportunities and act as unintentional agents of deinstitutionalization. A ‘different’ model of institutional change is presented here, where politics intersects with entrepreneurs, in changing social institutions. This model discusses the external drivers of institutional atrophy and how handling dissensus (and its varieties over historical time) is instrumental in enabling institutional entrepreneurship

The state of Britain’s larger moths 2021

This report summarises current knowledge of the state of Britain’s c.900 species of larger moths, presenting analyses of long-term change based on millions of records gathered through the Rothamsted Insect Survey (RIS) and National Moth Recording Scheme (NMRS)

Social Capital, Network Governance and Social Innovation: Towards a New Paradigm?

Limited knowledge and empirical evidence exist so far on how governance is related to social capital, and to comprehensively evaluate the effects of collaborative public-private partnerships in rural development actions, and whether these elements foster socially innovative actions. The book chapter begins to address these knowledge gaps. It highlights the conceptual framework linking social capital and network governance and identifies specific approaches to analysing governance. Moreover, it conceptually identifies the key elements for assessing governance mechanisms in the LEADER approach and explains its adoption in the evaluation method proposed in the book. The chapter concludes by outlining how social capital and governance may support social innovation, a topic which is developed more comprehensively in relation to LEADER's specific contribution in the final chapter of the same book